The Trump Corollary

A Warning for Latin American Sovereign

In the major film award ceremonies of the past two years, my country, Brazil, has been garnering numerous statuettes. I’m Still Here and Secret Agent share a common theme: our military dictatorship, which began with the 1964 coup d’état. Brazil was but one of six Southern Cone nations to have its democratic regime severed during that era through Operation Condor, in which the CIA was deeply entrenched.

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Excerpt from a report based on CIA information, drafted by the Assistant Secretary of State for Inter-American Affairs, Harry Shlaudeman, and presented to Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in August 1976.

Attacks on Latin American governments are not isolated events, but Trump’s foreign policies are the precedent-setting warning that the “Operation Condor” of the 21st century has arrived.  On the 3rd day of the year, Trump has normalized the kidnapping of foreign leaders as a tool of interventionist statecraft, and the West didn’t seem to think a big deal out of it. We are watching the creation of a new yet old “permission structure” for U.S. intervention: the blunt extension of American penal law over foreign leaders, bypassing any international consensus. Now, a bit over a month later, the even more strict sanctions against Cuba seem to go along the same path. It all signals that sovereignty in the Global South is now and again a revocable privilege, and that the domestic laws of the United States have officially become the new international law for the entire hemisphere.

Why it matters: beyond Venezuela

Seeing the relief of Venezuelans this January, I recognize a yearning common to subjugated peoples: a longing for mutual solidarity and the power to dismantle projects that fail to guarantee a meaningful life. Perhaps it is also a craving for the ideals of democracy and multilateralism once sold to us. Yet, if these concepts were always dubious in the Global South, they are now a proven farce—a reality made undeniable by two years of permitted genocide in Palestine. After Gaza, anything is possible.

The situation reveals a deep and persistent void. In its wake, a rift opens in the relations between the Global North and South. Since politics abhors a vacuum, Trump occupies this space in the most hazardous way possible. He does what the U.S. has always done, but with a certain popular mandate from those who disregard history in favor of their immediate, desperate desires. For them, the more desperate, the better. And keeping Cubans from having fuel to drive ambulances, while stealing its neighbour’s oil, sure is a successful way to keep people desperate.

Although we are living through the symptoms of our time, when Trump treats international law as a mere extension of American law, they are simply reheating old colonial ideas. It is crucial to distinguish his blunt, fascist undertones from the broader arc of U.S. history: while uniquely terrifying, Trump’s methods possess a potential to shatter the myths of Western benevolence. We often forget — or our media fails to mention — that this history has repeated itself as a farce since at least the 1954 invasion of Guatemala. This curated amnesia creates the perfect vacuum for the Trump Corollary to take root: without reckoning with our own history of intervention and imperial violence, we remain susceptible to old colonial tropes disguised as modern justice.

Meanwhile, in the West, Trump exploits the limited common knowledge of Latin American, Venezuelan and Cuban history to market the satisfying image of punished dictators and failed regimes. To many, this appeals, allowing them to forget that the execution of this punishment was a dangerous violation of human rights. It should be quite obvious that a leader being captured and forced to answer to a foreign penal system—without any constitutional guarantees—is utterly absurd. No one, not even a major criminal, should answer to the legal system of a country where they have no democratic standing. One does not defend democracy through colonial, authoritarian, and universalist methods.

It is chilling to observe that even the international left or progressives seem to treat Trump’s world-dictator stance in Venezuela, Cuba or Iran as something subjective or filled with positive contradictions. This leaves any challenger of the empire vulnerable. And by challenger, I mean anyone living in the South who either actively fights it or who simply believes it is better to live in peace on their own southern soil than under a threatening Yankee thumb.

A Lab for Latin America

Social inequality is foundational to the survival of neoliberalism and capitalism. Consequently, the system relentlessly suppresses any effort to operate on a level playing field. How many times in the history of class struggle have the impoverished, the workers, and the slum-dwellers been allowed to determine their own reality?

This is no different in Latin América or Venezuela itself. As any progressive project progressed in our territories, so did the friction and intransigence of an international bourgeoisie. So, one by one, they fell. Today, most of our countries are no longer as threatening to the global order as Venezuela or Cuba. During these times it is difficult to imagine that it would be possible for a country in the global south to dictate the future of the world’s biggest commodity and its billions of dollars. So, to deal with these projects, the plan was to repeat the last century: use the national bourgeoisie to sabotage internal processes. This, as it always does, involved illegal and cruel methods against the people, marred by coup attempts and U.S. intervention at the height of the “War on Terror.”

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The repression records discovered in Paraguay that proved Operation Condor and make up the ‘Archives of Terror’ (CIPDH).

Trump is merely the most grotesque symptom of a dorsal U.S. policy that remains unchanged regardless of who sits in the Oval Office, now exacerbated by a fascist mandate. Trump’s Corollary and his freedom to attack countries and its leaders seems to be a lesson on what happens when our governments dare to act without consulting U.S. interests. The strategy is repeated ad nauseam: implode the economy to force an authoritarian turn, then use that very turn to justify military punishment.

This is the permission structure that now threatens the entire continent and global order. Destabilizing nations to make them too fragile to oppose American will is an old strategy. Yet the West, alienated from the conditions its own regimes impose on us, buys into this “democracy” miracle — ignoring that this laboratory is already preparing its next targets.

Trump’s Corollary and 2026

The Trump Corollary poses an immediate risk to any nation seeking strategic autonomy. Countries like Colombia, under Petro’s attempt at reform, Cuba, or Mexico, are most at risk—politically, as targets of regime change rhetoric, and economically, through the weaponization of the dollar and sanctions. The rhetoric itself is already very alarming, as the pressure of a potential intervention against a leftist government creates, by itself, a massive influence over our political direction. If electing a progressive government is already difficult in Latin America, it becomes almost an impossible mission when the progressiveness of the government and its alliance to the US is used as a way to evaluate how much it poses a threat to a fascist administration. Who wants to be Donald Trump’s target?

In Brazil, the danger is tangible, as 2026 is the year of one of our most important presidential elections. Bolsonaro, who has been a threat to our democracy, was put to jail for an attempted coup, and since then, his son has been in the US begging for regime change intervention, creating an environment of growing flirtation with the idea of the U.S. breaching our autonomy. The other son of his is starting a presidential campaign. Just like the narrative to arrest Maduro was narcotrafficking, there is an ongoing narrative about our issues with narcotrafficking, and an attempt to classify it in a way that only makes sense in the US. With the tariffs and the constant threats of classifying our specific social problems using the American rules, we remain in the crosshairs of this laboratory of destabilization.

Can we turn demands into solidarity?

To allow—without protest—invasions, sanctions, deaths or abductions by finding solace in the flaws of an adversary is to normalize a new, profoundly dangerous political order for the Global South. These hegemonic tools never intend to promote liberation; they are masked by the West’s claim to a universal voice, a convenient fiction used to justify a cowardly refusal to engage with our complexity. As children of colonized soil, we must be the first to distrust these totalizing narratives, recognizing that our peoples are not a monolith and that our struggles cannot be evaluated through a single, foreign lens.

True solidarity, therefore, requires more than a lenient silence that treats our lands as mere testing grounds for the whims of a foreign leader. It demands a conscious effort to move beyond common sense and meet us where we are, centering the voices of those living the reality of their own soil. We ask that you truly listen, reject simplistic narratives and study the geopolitics that enable genuine resistance. Real multilateralism begins by crafting narratives that center sovereignty over market stability, ensuring that the precedent set in Caracas does not become the blueprint for our own capitals.

As Latin Americans, the task before us is immense, but we cannot stand alone. We must be able to count on your collective conscience. Across this continent, there is a profound, shared longing for true sovereignty: the simple, radical desire of a people to determine their own destiny. Or, as Victor Jara would say, we only want the right to live in peace.

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